The Bush administration has summoned Palestinian and Israelis for the month of November to a new Peace Conference where moderate Arab countries of the region would attend.
The Bush’s motivation for this call is to make a clean-up, so much in Middle East as his country, after the disastrous politics in Iraq that has left death, destruction and a civil war.
Iraq will continue being militarily occupied, as has already been indicated by Bush and sectors from the Democratic Party bound to Hillary Clinton, who agree with the republican idea of a long occupation to finish democratizing and stabilizing Iraq and the Middle East.
Alan Greenspan, in his recent memoirs as denounce, expressed something that we all knew:
“The main reason for the Iraq war and occupation was to take possession of the oil”.
Iraq, as the result of the occupation, is the main platform, along withPakistan and Afghanistan, of training, launching and action of Terrorists, what has disastrous consequences for any intent of Peace.
Why Bush remembers the Israeli Palestinian conflict now, after 7 years without direct negotiations between the parties and without a real pressure of his administration to achieve it, in spite of the trips of Condolezza Rice, Mr. Blair and the others members of the Madrid Quartet?
Because the opposition in his own country grows unceasingly to his politics in Iraq, in Half East and in the whole world.
Because he has already lost elections at the hands of the Democratic Party and because his popularity rate is the lowest point and it is probable that he loses the next presidential elections in 2008.
Because he fears that the moderate Arab countries (Saudia Arabia,Jordan and Egypt) get even more radical towards fundamentalist positions and overthrow their own governments, allowing that way to lose their strategic position in the area.
Because he thinks that the world is unipolar, and therefore USA should finish its savior mission.
Because he seeks to leave the White House at the end of 2008 trying to make up the reality of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, always deferred for a fair and durable resolution.
Some “X » remain on the Conference of Washington.
1. The calendar is not clear, Bush seeks that Abbas and Olmert in their previous meetings have come to an agreement of Peace in the main points of the Conflict.
2. Last news published on September 18th in the international press, point out that Abbas is not interested on negotiating, if they don’t discuss the final borders, Jerusalem and the refugees.
3. On the Palestinian side, Hamas from Gaza is pressing the Abbas’ Government to renovate the Palestinian government unity that is an unequivocal sign that any agreement of Peace with Israel could drown in case of unity, according to analysts. The last attacks of rockets Qassam from Gaza seeks somehow to torpedo this conversations, while at the same time is expressing Hamas a truce desire with Israel.
Abbas travels to Saudi Arabia with the intention of obtaining support for this Conference, but the saudita regime refuses to participate if the topics already pointed out are not discussed, apart from reaching a global agreement with all the Arab countries of the region, in definitive, to implement the Saudi Plan of Peace proposed in 2002 in Beirut and relaunched in March of 2007 in The Mecca. The last Saudi declaration was: “If there will only be a declaration of intentions, it is not worthwhile to go to the meeting.» In his opinion, a summit without content will help to worsen the situation.
4. In the moderate Arab countries of Egypt and Jordan also discourage is spreading.
On the Israeli side, a declaration of intentions is wanted and not an agreement of principles. A survey published in the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot pointed out that only the 13% of the Israeli population trusts these negotiations of peace.
The opposition in Israel has begun to show its weapons to any intent of going farther than a declaration of intentions with the Palestinian, increasing the threats of many members and sectors to abandon the own Party Kadimah.
The two “hinge” parties of the coalition that Olmert heads, Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu, threaten with the abandonment of this coalition with the possibility of fall of the Government, if the prime minister yields the control of the Mount of the Temple in the conversations with Abbas.
In the middle of this political climate and of its own weakness and unpopularity in their respective towns, so much Abbas as Olmert raises doubts of the accomplishment of this Conference, whereas the Bush administration continues pressing for its accomplishment and waits for results. Condolezza Rice arrives next week to the region.
In this background, military drums sound again in the region with the recent attacks of Israeli aviation to nuclear power plants in Syria, Iran tries to equip Hezbollah with this armament so much in Syria as in the South of the Lebanon.
Gideon Levy , journalist of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, questions the official information given by the Israeli army about them firing on Syria and he asks himself why the Israeli public opinion does not have right to know what is there behind and which are the purposes of this bombing.
The last declarations of the French Secretary of State Kouchner in theInternacional Conference of Vienna on atomic energy, about the need of preparing us for a preventive war bombing the nuclear power plants of Iran, makes the alarms to go off in the region and in the whole world.
We can’t take this as a linguistic imprudence, if not that this fact responds to a fixed strategy, in order to offset the increasing influence of Iran in the region and the supports received for its nuclear development from Russia, China and Germany.
We don’t know if the conference is still on. Olmert needs a peace agreement to subsist politically but it seems that he is not going to yield to the demands of Abbas, Abbas needs an agreement but not whatever the cost since his people will not allow him, people from Israel and Palestine need a fair agreement and lasting, integrating all the points necessary to negotiate otherwise, the swords will still be out of their case.
U.S.A. needs an agreement even if it is very basic, but it is not clear that it will be achieved.
We preferred a real and sincere peace conference to a masquerade that matches other people’s interests not involved with the will of the Palestinian and Israeli people.
We preferred that Peace conversations go on, approaches of the organizations in the civil society, mobilization of the pacifists from both countries that act on their governments and they can also be political actors in this process, no peace agreement will be obtained if there is not a pacific and continuous mobilization from both parts.